Fantasy Preamie League tips

The great trio – FPL selections for Gameweek 4

Hi,

in this weekly blog post I present you 3 players which I recommend for upcoming Fantasy Premier League gameweek. Hopefully they’ll reward us with big hauls 😎

Here you can read & download DATASET for GW4.

It’s a guide for most my decision and I believe you should also take these data into account before doing any transfers


Introduction:


First of them is a Captain – in my opinion the most important factor in FPL. You can do everything right, but if you struggle with captain selection, almost always the red arrows will appear next to your overall ranking. Basically this choice will be also my choice for my own team, but sometimes I just won’t have the player I recommend you in my line-up.

Second choice is a ‘secret weapon‘, a player you should definitely consider to you line-up. This will be more a long-term choice rather than someone only for the next gameweek. My aim is to pick a player with good underlying stats & fixtures run so you can profit over next few gameweeks (let’s say no less than 3 GW’s but likely no longer than 5 GW’s).

Third choice is ‘niche‘, a differential pick with overall ownership less than 5%. This should help you to differentiate your team form the template – also from your mini-league rivals – and often turn your eye to someone who might be worth having because of his points to price ratio.


Gameweek picks:


  • CAPTAIN – Kevin De Bruyne (Leeds vs Manchester City)

Although I prefered to captain Werner in the previous gameweek, I admit I was scared (and sitting a bit behind my sofa) while watching City against Leicester. Even in that game when nothing was going on their way, he was dangerous and could have had at least one assist: 3 key passes + 2 shots off target prove that he is always involved. Now it’s time for City to bounce back and it’s a perfect opponent to do it. Leeds allowed Liverpool to score 4 goals (what isn’t that weird), but they also lost 3 to Fuhlam. THREE goals lost to Fuhlam is awful achivement, because Fuhlam wasn’t able to do nothing against Aston Villa one week later. They literally did nothing, though match stats show something different. Leeds has allowed so far 3nd most shots attempts (50) and is 2nd worse (after WBA) in terms of expected goals conceded. They will be without Jack Harrison that was one of the standing out players so far. Last but not least, they conceded so far the joint most penalties (3) and guess who’s on pens in Manchester City.

  • 2. Secret weapon –
    Raheem Sterling (Leeds vs Manchester City)
    Daniel Podence (Wolverhampton vs Fuhlam)

He is not clinical as Aguero, false 9 isn’t his favorite position for sure, but it’s Manchester City that creates tons of chances for their forwards and Raheem Sterling who’s at the moment responsible to finish at least some of those chances. In terms of FPL it’s a midfielder deployed to attack, one of the best things could actually happens to your team. What’s even more tempting, he play for extremely attacking side, that is yet to prove it during ongoing season. Leeds (A) on the horizon, Arsenal (H) and West Ham (A) are looking tasty in terms of scoring goals, so he’s definitely worth a punt. I regret not having him in my team, but I’m not going to ruin my line-up and take hit’s co bring him aboard. But if you are in a different position, maybe on a wildcard or considering what to do with Son, I would tempt me so much…

WOLVERHAMPTON, ENGLAND – JUNE 24: Daniel Podence of Wolverhampton Wanderers during the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and AFC Bournemouth at Molineux on June 24, 2020 in Wolverhampton, United Kingdom. (Photo by Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images)

It’s very rare when I present two options but I feel this is actually a good moment. Daniel Podence has impressed at the start of the season, assist vs SHU in GW1, another assists vs MCI in GW2. He looked really good against The Citizens. Then without him Wolves got humiliated by West Ham in GW3, so I expect Wolves to bounce back now with Daniel in the starting line-up. Their next 3 opponents are: FUL (H), LEI (A) and NEW (A). All three sides all struggling at the back, are very high in terms of shots conceded, goal attempts conceded and expected goals conceded (LEE 2nd, NEW 3th, FUL 6th). It’s very unlikely to find a better fixtures run.

btw. this is the comparison of him and Raheem Sterling. Interesting, is he the same type of player?
Source: understat.com

  • 3. Niche – Che Adams (Southampton vs West Brom) 2,3% ownership

He was either unlucky or not enough clinical so far, he missed the most big chances from among forwards (3) and his xG non-penalty confirms he underperformed so far. Now he faces WBA, the team that allowed the opponents so far:
goals (11)
most shots in the box (34)
shots on target (24)
and either has highest xGA and xG from Open Play
I think we should expect lot of goals in this game and I back Che Adams to open his scoring account. With 2,3% ownership he can be a very nice differential. Tbh I’m a little bit scared to not have neither of Ings and Adams 😳


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