Fantasy Preamie League tips

The great trio – FPL selections for Gameweek 3

Hi,

in this weekly blog post I present you 3 players which I recommend for upcoming Fantasy Premier League gameweek. Hopefully they’ll reward us with big hauls 😎

Here you can read & download DATASET for GW3.

It’s a guide for most my decision and I believe you should also take these data into account before doing any transfers


Introduction:


First of them is a Captain – in my opinion the most important factor in FPL. You can do everything right, but if you struggle with captain selection, almost always the red arrows will appear next to your overall ranking. Basically this choice will be also my choice for my own team, but sometimes I just won’t have the player I recommend you in my line-up.

Second choice is a ‘secret weapon‘, a player you should definitely consider to you line-up. This will be more a long-term choice rather than someone only for the next gameweek. My aim is to pick a player with good underlying stats & fixtures run so you can profit over next few gameweeks (let’s say no less than 3 GW’s but likely no longer than 5 GW’s).

Third choice is ‘niche‘, a differential pick with overall ownership less than 5%. This should help you to differentiate your team form the template – also from your mini-league rivals – and often turn your eye to someone who might be worth having because of his points to price ratio.


Gameweek picks:


  • CAPTAIN – Timo Werner (West Brom vs Chelsea)

In my opinion there are two candidates for the armband this week: KDB & Timo Werner, though I saw lot of people talking about Mo Salah. Although I have him in my FPL team, I won’t consider him as a captain option this week. I just don’t like giving the armband to someone who faces top 6 side, especially having in mind how good has been doing Arteta against top 6 so far.

Since the news about Wilfired Ndidi’s injury appeared, everyone seems leaning towards to KDB as GW3 captain. Ofc he’s also present in my team so I could give him the armband. But a couple days ago, Timo Werner was the leading candidate. So, what happened? Is Ndidi’s absence so important? Let’s have a look:

2019/20 Leicester with Ndidi:
most goals conceded:

GW18 vs Manchester City (3)
GW19 vs Liverpool (4)
GW35 vs Bournemouth (4)
GW37 vs Tottenham (3)

So, except those four games they had never lost more than 2 goals in a game and were very solid in defence.

2019/20 Leicester without Ndidi:

also at that time Wilf had his knee injured and was absent for 5 games and Leicester was doing poor over this period indeed. But they had never lost by more than 2 goals, though they had faced:

Southampton (quite attacking side) 1:2
Chelsea (very attacking side then) 2:2
Wolves (well organized side) 0:0
Manchester City 0:1

So, what I’m saying is that Brendan Rodgers isn’t a fool. He knows very well his team strengths but also weakness. He knows that with Ndidi on the pitch they can go more forward, while when he is absent, they have to pay more attention how they defend. It’s very rare when his team get crashed and allow the opponent to score more than 3 goals.

This season so far Leicester is doing good. They won twice and beat WBA 3-0 and BUR 4-2. Both goals they lost, were after they had lost two physical duels. I believe the game against City will be different and the weakest part of their defence will be their left-hand side with James Justin (might be good news for Foden / Mahrez owners).

West Brom are completely on the different stage of development. It’s newly promoted team without big experience in PL. At the start of the season, their main issue seems to be defence.

WBA 0 – 3 LEI
EVE 5 – 2 WBA

So far:

Most goals conceded: 1st WBA (8) 15th LEI (2)
Most goal attempts in box conceded: 1st WBA & LEE (24) 10th LEI (14)
Total shots conceded: 3th WBA (30) 10th LEI (23)
Shots on target conceded: 1st WBA (14) 12th LEI (6)
Most big chances conceded: 1st WBA (8) 14th LEI (2)
xGA: 1st WBA 14th LEI
xGA Open Play: 1st WBA (3,5) 13th LEI (1,3)

This is why Timo Werner will be my GW3 captain. With 6 shot attempts he is 2nd (after Richarlison) who didn’t score a goal yet. What’s important, he didn’t have any single big chance yet! I guess he’s hungry for goals and everybody around knows, the sooner he scores the better for the whole team.

  • 2. Secret weapon – Raul Jimenez (West Ham vs Wolverhampton)

This is an obvious pick to me. His fixtures run looks incredible, Wolves look solid as always, well organized with some interesting additions to their line-up. Raul is the main gun, also potentially responsible for penalties this season. He scored an incredible header vs Manchester City in GW2 and definitely will continue against one of the weakest defenses in the league, which are all West Ham (away), Fuhlam (home) & Leeds (away). btw. Leeds were poor at set-pieces, so expect him to score another beautiful header in this game 😉

  • 3. Niche – Riyad Mahrez (Manchester City vs Leicester) 2% ownership

By the way, when I wrote above about captain pick for this week, I did mention about Leicester left-hand side. James Justin looks good in terms of attacking abilities, but not so good in defending. I believe this will be the weakest point of Leicester’s defence and I think that Mahrez will start on the right flank. He was fantastic after season 19/20 restart and he deserve much more credit this season, I just can’t imagine Guardiola could bench him for two gameweeks in a row. This is the main reason why I didn’t decide to transfers Phil Foden into my team so far. If you did take a punt on him, you should count on big reward because his owned only by 2% FPL managers.


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